U.S. Container Imports Slip Below 2 Million TEUs as Tariff Tensions and Soft Demand Weigh on Trade

U.S. container imports are expected to dip below 2 million TEUs for the remainder of the year, according to the latest Global Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

The slowdown follows an early peak season as retailers frontloaded shipments ahead of new tariffs and now sit on ample inventories heading into the holidays. “This year’s peak season has come and gone, largely due to retailers frontloading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. “Most retailers are well-stocked and doing all they can to shield consumers from higher costs.” The SONAR Inbound Ocean TEUs Volume Index for October 1 was down less than 1% from the prior week but 14.6% below last year’s level, signaling weaker underlying demand despite a modest pre–Golden Week uptick.

Trade activity remains volatile as tariff negotiations continue. The Trump administration’s second pause of retaliatory tariffs in August has yet to revive the key Asia–U.S. trade lane, with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer calling the current 55% tariff levels a “good status quo.” If no deal or new pause is reached, tariffs will snap back November 14 to 145% on Chinese imports and 125% on U.S. exports—levels that nearly froze trade earlier this year. In response, China has signaled plans to impose new port fees and potentially bar some vessels from entry following upcoming U.S. charges on China-linked ships set to take effect October 14.

Freight rates continue to reflect the uneven market. The Freightos Baltic Index reported Asia–U.S. West Coast rates down 15% last week to $1,853 per FEU, while East Coast rates rose 16% to $3,967 per FEU. West Coast prices are now at their lowest since December 2023, when spot levels hovered near $1,744 per FEU. Carriers have blanked about 13% of scheduled trans-Pacific sailings as of October 5, according to Sea-Intelligence, a lighter capacity cut than last year’s 15.4% reduction on the West Coast and 11.9% on the East Coast. For 2025, carriers plan more modest reductions of 3.8% and 4.8% respectively during Golden Week.

The NRF reported that U.S. ports handled 2.32 million TEUs in August, down 2.9% from July’s 2.39 million peak but 0.1% higher year over year. September volume is projected at 2.12 million TEUs, a 6.8% annual decline, followed by 1.97 million in October (down 12.3% y/y), 1.75 million in November (down 19.2%), and 1.72 million in December (down 19.4%)—the lowest since March 2023’s 1.62 million TEUs. The NRF noted that while falling totals are linked to tariffs, the year-over-year declines also reflect this year’s early peak and last year’s elevated imports due to strike concerns. Full-year port volume is forecast at 24.79 million TEUs, down 2.9% from 2024, despite a 3.7% gain in first-half shipments.

Economic headwinds are adding pressure to trade volumes. Morgan Stanley projects consumer spending growth will cool to 3.7% in 2025, down from 5.7% last year, amid a cooling labor market, inflation, and broader uncertainty. Adding to the strain, the administration’s new 25% tariffs on furniture, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom vanities take effect next week, with another increase scheduled for January.

The 90-day tariff pause from August expires November 10 unless a new agreement is reached. Early 2026 forecasts suggest little relief, with January imports projected at 1.87 million TEUs (down 16.1% y/y) and February at 1.77 million TEUs (down 12.8%), underscoring continued caution among shippers and retailers.

Source: www.freightwaves.com