Trans-Pacific Rates Slide as LA Port Nears Historic 10M TEU Milestone

Overcapacity across the trans-Pacific container trade has derailed carriers’ November general rate increases, which briefly pushed West Coast spot rates to about $3,000 per FEU. According to the latest Freightos data, those gains quickly evaporated: West Coast rates plunged 32% last week to $1,900 per FEU and slipped another $100 this week, though they remain above the early-October low of $1,400.

East Coast prices saw similar pressure, falling 8% last week to $3,400 per FEU and easing to $3,000 this week—essentially back to where they stood in early October.

Freightos head of research Judah Levine noted that last week’s vessel fire at the Port of Los Angeles has not meaningfully affected pricing, as operations recovered swiftly. The ONE Henry Hudson, which suffered a stubborn below-deck fire, was safely towed to anchorage and later returned to berth with minimal operational disruption.

Meanwhile, ocean shipping remained a central topic in global trade discussions as a fragile ceasefire in the Gaza conflict triggered renewed conversations about carriers’ possible return to the Red Sea–Suez Canal route. CMA CGM indicated plans to expand service, having maintained some schedules even after Houthi attacks on merchant vessels in late 2023 forced most carriers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. Maersk, however, said it has no immediate plans to return. ZIM’s chief executive suggested a near-term return is increasingly likely, though most carriers remain noncommittal.

Levine cautioned that a widespread reinstatement of Suez transits—which typically carry roughly 30% of global container volumes—would compress transit times by seven to ten days compared to the Cape detours, causing a sudden early arrival of vessels in Europe. The resulting vessel bunching and congestion would delay schedules and absorb capacity, potentially pushing up rates. Carriers are planning a phased return, using smaller vessels first to mitigate disruptions. Even with a gradual reset, it may take up to two months for schedules to stabilize, and a rushed transition would likely push rates downward. Industry estimates suggest as much as 2 million TEUs of capacity could reenter the market.

The diversions around Africa over the past two years had driven East-West rates to $8,000–$10,000 per FEU at their peak in 2024 and established a higher floor of $3,000–$5,000 during weaker demand periods. Rates have since retreated significantly, and in some cases fell back to 2023 levels by early October. Carriers had more success with rate hikes on Asia–Europe lanes in October and November, boosting prices roughly 40% to $2,500 per FEU to Northern Europe and $3,000 per FEU to the Mediterranean through blank sailings. Additional GRIs are planned for December, aiming for the $3,000–$4,000 range, though labor disruptions—such as an announced strike in Belgium—and signs of softening demand may limit their effectiveness.

Amid rate volatility and shifting global routing strategies, the Port of Los Angeles posted a solid October, processing 848,431 TEUs and moving closer to an unprecedented annual milestone. “With six weeks to go, we are within reach of the 10 million container unit-mark for the year,” said Executive Director Gene Seroka. “If achieved, it would be the third time in our history and something no other Western Hemisphere port has accomplished even once.”

Volumes through the first 10 months of 2024 reached 8,655,489 TEUs, up 2% year-over-year. Seroka cautioned, however, that earlier front-loading by importers seeking to get ahead of tariff exposure will likely temper November and December totals amid well-stocked retail and manufacturing inventories.

In October, loaded imports fell 7% to 429,283 TEUs, while loaded exports inched up 1% to 123,768 TEUs. Empty container movements—an indicator of future import demand—declined 8% to 295,380 TEUs. Some empty flows have shifted northward as trade lanes realigned in response to U.S. tariffs, helping drive a 6% increase in first-half volume at the Port of Vancouver and a striking 56% surge in October throughput at the Port of Prince Rupert. The latter has gained traction as ocean carriers adjust schedules and seek alternatives for Asia-origin cargo bound for the U.S. Midwest via rail, especially as the the U.S. began implementing new port fees on October 14, 2025, for vessels that are Chinese-built, owned, or operated.

Source: www.freightwaves.com