New Year, Familiar Headwinds for U.S. Imports and Ocean Freight

As the calendar turns, the U.S. import market is entering the New Year facing many of the same pressures that defined the closing months of the old one: softening demand, tariff-driven uncertainty, and persistent mismatches between shipping capacity and cargo volumes.

Import traffic through the nation’s busiest container ports is expected to continue its year-over-year decline into early next year, according to the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) Global Port Tracker. October volumes totaled 2.07 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), down 1.8% from September and 7.9% compared with a year earlier. November volumes are estimated at 1.91 million TEUs, an 11.6% annual decline, while December is forecast at 1.86 million TEUs, off 12.7%.

If realized, November and December would mark the slowest months of the year following the July peak of 2.39 million TEUs, with December shaping up as the weakest month since June 2023.

While late-year months are typically slower for imports, NRF noted that the steep year-over-year drops are amplified by the unusually strong volumes of late 2024 and early 2025, when importers rushed cargo ahead of potential port labor disruptions and higher tariffs. That pull-forward effect has left inventories well stocked but has weighed heavily on current demand.

“Stores are stocked up and ready for a record holiday season, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in 2026 with trade policy,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy.

Tariff uncertainty remains a central concern. The Trump administration has reduced some duties in a fragmented rollback campaign this year, most recently on select food products amid mounting consumer price pressures. At the same time, the Supreme Court is considering a challenge to the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. A decision timeline is unclear, and analysts expect the administration would seek alternative trade authorities if the levies are struck down.

“We are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter and likely into the first half of next year,” said Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates, which manages the Global Port Tracker. “Container shipping rates are already declining on both coasts due to less need for cargo space from Asia and Europe.”

Despite softer freight volumes, NRF is forecasting record U.S. retail holiday sales exceeding $1 trillion, up between 3.7% and 4.2% from last year. First-half 2025 container volumes totaled 12.53 million TEUs, a 3.7% increase year over year, but full-year volume is projected at 25.2 million TEUs, down 1.4% from 2024.

Early 2026 is expected to bring only modest relief. January volumes are forecast to rise month over month for the first time in six months to 2 million TEUs, though still down 10.3% year over year. February, March, and April are projected to remain well below prior-year levels.

Against this demand backdrop, ocean carriers are grappling with excess capacity as they head into New Year service contract negotiations. Efforts to support rates through capacity reductions and blanked sailings on the trans-Pacific have delivered only mixed results.

According to Freightos, rates on the Asia–U.S. West Coast fell 6% last week to $1,963 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), retreating from an early-month general rate increase. East Coast rates rose 8% to $3,150 per FEU, though they remain 15% lower than a month ago.

Even with that volatility, carriers have managed to keep rates above October lows, benefiting from short-lived rate spikes between pullbacks. About 60% of containerized cargo moves under long-term contracts, with the remainder moving on the spot market—a balance that can quickly shift when capacity tightens or loosens.

The challenge, analysts say, is that new vessel deliveries continue to enter service in an already soft market.

“Slumping fourth-quarter demand, combined with growing fleets, is weighing on rate levels,” said Freightos head of research Judah Levine. “That makes mid-month GRIs unlikely to stick, with a more sustained rebound more likely closer to Lunar New Year.”

Adding another layer of uncertainty is a reported pause in imports by some U.S. manufacturers, who are betting that tariffs could be reduced or eliminated if the Supreme Court rules against the administration’s emergency measures. A decision is not expected until at least January, and speculation persists that the White House could use an unfavorable ruling as a political off-ramp amid rising cost-of-living criticism.

For now, as the industry enters the New Year, weakening import demand in the U.S., unresolved trade policy questions, and uneven global rate performance suggest that early 2026 may look strikingly similar to the year just passed.

Source: www.freightwaves.com