Global Container Rates Trend Higher into Year-End

Trans-Pacific container rates out of Asia are expected to remain firm as shippers accelerate bookings ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays.

“Ocean rates on the major east–west trade lanes strengthened toward the end of the year,” said Freightos analyst Judah Levine. “Asia–Europe prices rose 1% last week to $2,742 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), are 12% higher than mid-month levels, and have returned to rates last seen at the tail end of peak season.”

Data from Freightos also showed Asia–Mediterranean rates increased 4% to reach $4,000 per FEU for the first time since early July, marking a 20% jump compared with the first half of the month.

Current rate levels are being supported by an early start to pre–Lunar New Year demand, compounded by Red Sea diversions that continue to extend transit times. Rates are expected to remain elevated or climb further as the holiday approaches, when Chinese factories typically shut down for several weeks.

While some major container carriers have recently tested a limited return of mega-vessels to the Red Sea–Suez Canal route, multiple factors continue to weigh against a full and rapid resumption.

From a commercial perspective, carriers are facing declining profitability due to longer voyages and high operating costs. A full return to the Red Sea could also reintroduce up to 2 million TEUs of capacity into the market, potentially putting downward pressure on freight rates.

Security risks remain a significant concern. Although Yemen-based Houthi militants paused attacks on Israel-linked shipping following the Gaza ceasefire, they have indicated they are closely monitoring developments. Tensions escalated further on Dec. 30, when Saudi Arabia bombed Yemen’s Port of Mukalla on the Gulf of Aden over a weapons shipment allegedly destined for the Houthis.

Broader regional instability is also a factor, with protests in Iran raising concerns about potential political upheaval.

On the benchmark Asia–U.S. trade lanes, Levine noted that periodic general rate increases since October have been less effective at sustaining higher pricing compared with Asia–Europe routes.

Since mid-December, rate hikes have lifted West Coast prices 9% to $2,145 per FEU, while East Coast rates rose 15% to $3,364 per FEU.

Rising pre–Lunar New Year demand is expected to place additional upward pressure on rates, echoing seasonal increases seen at the start of 2024 and 2025.

“The holiday begins later than usual this year, on Feb. 17, which could allow for another near-term rate dip before demand strengthens,” Levine said. “However, if volumes begin to build early in the new year, rate levels should continue to climb.”

Global container volumes grew 4% through early fourth quarter, despite a decline in ocean imports tied to the U.S. trade war and an overall contraction in trans-Pacific imports. Growth was supported by China’s efforts to diversify exports toward Europe, Africa, and Latin America.



Looking ahead, U.S. ocean imports are projected to decline by 2% in 2026, marking only the third time in the past two decades that the U.S. has experienced consecutive years of container import contraction—following the 2008–2009 financial crisis and the post-pandemic pullback in 2022–2023.

Source: www.freightwaves.com